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Field Notes·February 2026

5 min read

Long-horizon capital in European education.

Fragmentation, succession, and why long-horizon ownership now beats roll-up scale.

ByOffice of Investments

Aerial of an independent school estate

European independent education is a deeply fragmented market. There are over fifteen thousand independent schools across the continent, the majority owned by founders, families, or small charitable trusts. The aggregation thesis is, in one sense, obvious.

Why obvious is not enough

Roll-ups in education have a poor track record. The pattern repeats: a fund acquires twenty schools at a sensible multiple, integrates the operations, leans on the brands, raises fees. Five years later, parent complaints rise, leavers exceed joiners, and the fund holds an asset whose enterprise value has gone the wrong way.

The mistake is to treat schools as cash-flow assets first and institutions second. Cash flow follows trust. Trust takes a decade to build and a board meeting to lose.

What long-horizon capital changes

We invest from a structure that does not need to exit on a five-year clock. That alone changes every conversation we have with a head — about facilities, about staff investment, about pricing, about the curriculum risk that always pays back in year seven.

  • We do not need to consolidate central services that parents see.
  • We do not need to lift fees to fund the deal.
  • We do not need to merge brands to look bigger to a future buyer.

The European market will be aggregated. The question is whether it will be aggregated by people willing to be patient.

We measure scale in places served, not in flags planted.